In contrast to Republicans, whose convention had a random-seeming parade of speakers each night, Democrats mostly hit their marks and stuck to the traditional convention script. …
In short, the Democrats appeared to have a conventionally effective convention, and perhaps a very effective convention (which is not to say they had a perfect one). Conventions usually produce polling bounces. In the 1980s and 1990s, these bounces often stretched into the double-digits, but they’ve been more modest in recent election cycles, averaging about 4 percentage points. …
Another way to think about conventions is that they help to reset the race to equilibrium. … What’s tricky about 2016 is that we don’t have a strong sense of what that equilibrium looks like. CONT.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight