President Obama will address the Democratic convention tonight from an unusually strong position; for the last two months straight he’s held the highest job approval rating in ABC News/Washington Post polls since early in his presidency. Fifty-six percent approve of his job performance, up from a career-low 40 percent just […] Read more »
The Myth of the Undecided Voter
America’s most coveted voting bloc: the infamous “undecided” voter. … But there are two types of undecided voters. The first are useless. They simply don’t know or don’t care about the candidates and/or the political process. … But the second? They will decide the election. They are the none-of-the-above voter. They […] Read more »
Did Tim Kaine need to flip his position on the TPP to win Sanders’s supporters? Nope.
… It seems to be conventional wisdom that Bernie supporters are against the TPP, given the anti-TPP signs carried by some at last night’s Democratic convention and Sanders’s clear opposition to the trade deal. But what do the public opinion surveys show? Do Sanders’s supporters really dislike TPP — and […] Read more »
Clinton vs. Trump: Who’s Benefiting Most From Wedge Politics in 2016?
As the first woman to win a major-party nomination, Hillary Clinton has been expected to draw an outsize share of women voters this fall. With her promise to raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations, she has been expected to do well with liberals. Her contention that racial injustices deserve […] Read more »
When Voters See a Contested Convention vs. a Unified Convention, Guess Who Wins
There have been 13 presidential elections since 1964, and six of the outcomes have been foreshadowed by attitudes about the conventions held by each of the major parties. When one party had a cohesive convention and the other party had a contentious convention, the winner was almost ordained. The chart […] Read more »
A Guide to the Women’s Vote
Commentaries on the dynamics of the 2016 race have focused on Donald Trump’s strength with working class men and Hillary Clinton’s challenge with white men. White non-college men are voting for Trump 58 to 22 percent in a 3-way ballot, and 75 percent view Clinton unfavorably (67 percent very unfavorably). […] Read more »