Whatever else it does, the Trump campaign will test the willingness of the American electorate to support a candidate who asserts his right to run roughshod over the Constitution and flout traditional constraints on the exercise of power. … Trump’s entire campaign is premised on the primal assault of an […] Read more »
Hanging Tough: Why we’ve made only minor changes to our Electoral College ratings since March
… The Crystal Ball has been an island of stability in a chaotic, broiling sea. How can that be? Haven’t we been paying attention to the considerable shifts back and forth over the last month? Don’t we read the polls and other sites’ projections, which bounce up and down from […] Read more »
The Convention Aftermath: Clinton Bounces Higher Than Trump
How big did Hillary Clinton bounce in the polls after the Democratic National Convention? Based on the available data as of Wednesday afternoon, the Democratic nominee soared higher than Donald Trump did. CONT. Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Read more »
The 2016 Race Is Not Over
According to the chatter in Washington and on Twitter today, the election is over. The Donald Trump campaign literally imploded, sending red hot shards of burning metal across the countryside. The campaign staff is in disarray, RNC leaders are apoplectic and looking for an “out clause” on the nomination. Meanwhile, […] Read more »
When are election polls most reliable?
A new round of US election polls have shifted momentum behind Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the three-month dash to November. … But do the recent batch of surveys paint an accurate picture of what will happen when voters head to the polls in November? Not quite, according to experts […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Clinton leads Trump by 10 points, both seen as flawed
Sixty-one percent of voters think Hillary Clinton is dishonest, yet she’s opened up a big lead over Donald Trump in the latest Fox News Poll. Here’s why: majorities think Clinton is nevertheless qualified to be president, and has the temperament and knowledge to serve effectively. It’s the opposite for Trump: […] Read more »