You sort of know there is a convention bounce that you should sort of ignore, but why? What’s actually in a polling bump? … Recent research, however, suggests that swings in the polls can often be attributed not to changes in voter intention but in changing patterns of survey nonresponse: […] Read more »
Why a Meaningful Shift in the Trump-Clinton Race May Be at Hand
Hillary Clinton has a large and perhaps growing lead in the nation and in many of the predominantly white battleground states where Donald Trump was thought to have his best shot, according to a wave of new surveys released in the last two days. … In general, it’s not worth […] Read more »
Pennsylvania holds keys in Clinton-Trump tilt
National and state polls conducted after the national party nominating conventions in July picked up a surge by Democrat Hillary Clinton. Pennsylvania is no exception. In the latest Franklin & Marshall College Poll, Clinton holds an 11 percent lead over Republican Donald Trump among likely voters, 49 percent to 38 […] Read more »
NBC/WSJ Poll: Hillary Clinton Jumps to Nine Point Lead Over Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton has jumped out to a nine-point lead over Donald Trump, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll shows, nearly doubling the five-point advantage she held over her Republican foe before the political conventions. In a head-to-head matchup, the Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine receives […] Read more »
Clinton surges to big lead in McClatchy-Marist poll
Hillary Clinton has surged to a 15-point lead over reeling, gaffe-plagued Donald Trump, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll. Clinton made strong gains with two constituencies crucial to a Republican victory – whites and men — while scoring important gains among fellow Democrats, the poll found. CONT. David Lightman & […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton’s Millennial Challenge
The Millennial Generation is poised to exert more influence in the 2016 election than ever before. And yet paradoxically, the generation today stands as one of the knottiest challenges facing Hillary Clinton in her race against Donald Trump, a candidate who, polls show, most of them disdain. Though the Democratic […] Read more »