Hillary Clinton has emerged from the two major party conventions and their aftermath with an eight-point lead over Donald Trump, aided by a consolidation of support among Democrats and a failure so far by Republicans to rally equally behind their nominee, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. … […] Read more »
Clinton Opens 23-Point Lead Among Women, Gains With Democrats as Trump Struggles
Hillary Clinton has advanced among women and consolidated support within her party since her nominating convention, while a difficult few weeks have left Donald Trump still struggling on basic ratings from his temperament to his qualifications for office. She leads him by 8 points in a new ABC News/Washington Post […] Read more »
For Trump, the Problem Isn’t the Message. It’s the Messenger.
The 2016 presidential election has solidified into a referendum on Republican nominee Donald Trump. And it’s the man – not his message – that’s creating the stark choice that voters must make in November between two unpopular nominees. … “The messenger is just so flawed that the message, which may […] Read more »
NYT Upshot: Hillary Clinton has an 80% chance of winning the presidency
The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that a Major League Baseball player will strike […] Read more »
Clinton is more optimistic than Trump. But optimism doesn’t predict winners anymore.
… I examined Clinton’s and Trump’s convention speeches using a technique I’ve applied to almost every major-party nominee’s acceptance address going back to 1900, and I found that Clinton is indeed more optimistic than Trump by most measures. But Democrats may want to temper their optimism about that result. The […] Read more »
Trump’s Slump Deepens In The Polls
There’s no longer any doubt that the party conventions have shifted the presidential election substantially toward Hillary Clinton. She received a larger bounce from her convention than Donald Trump got from his, but Trump has continued to poll so poorly in state and national surveys over the past two days […] Read more »