You sort of know there is a convention bounce that you should sort of ignore, but why? What’s actually in a polling bump? …
Recent research, however, suggests that swings in the polls can often be attributed not to changes in voter intention but in changing patterns of survey nonresponse: What seems like a big change in public opinion turns out to be little more than changes in the inclinations of Democrats and Republicans to respond to polls. CONT.
Andrew Gelman & David Rothschild, Slate