… The Crystal Ball has been an island of stability in a chaotic, broiling sea. How can that be? Haven’t we been paying attention to the considerable shifts back and forth over the last month? Don’t we read the polls and other sites’ projections, which bounce up and down from day to day like yo-yos? …
In our view, it is much more fruitful to focus on the electoral fundamentals and fixed elements of politics that predetermine most votes, especially partisanship, demographics, and strong forces shaping the political landscape. Polarization in this hyper-partisan era means that practically nine of 10 voters are committed, and the unknown is whether they can be motivated to cast a ballot. Presidential job approval, the state of the economy, war and peace, and a few other items reinforce partisanship and turnout, and influence the few truly swingable votes among hard independents.
This is especially true when the choices are as well-known as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. CONT.
Larry J. Sabato, Sabato’s Crystal Ball