The polling miss that defines 2018 might not be the one from 2016. It may be the one from 2017.

… In 2016, one of the problems in state polls was that Trump voters turned out more heavily than many pollsters expected. In 2017, one of the problems with the polls in Virginia was that Democrats turned out more heavily than many pollsters expected. Those Democrats elected not only Northam […] Read more »

Final picks for 2018: Democrats in House; Republicans in Senate; Democrats big in gubernatorial races; be on guard for upsets

… Our expectations for this election have been consistent for the past several months. We favor the Democrats in the House and Republicans in the Senate, and we expect the Democrats to pick up a significant share of governorships. Our picks follow. We’ve also included an “upset watch” listing in […] Read more »

Florida Governor’s Race: Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis

Florida. Its close elections are legendary. And this year, the governor’s race may be no exception. After an upset victory in a crowded primary field, the Democrat Andrew Gillum is running on an unapologetically progressive platform. Ron DeSantis, the Republican, is a strong supporter of President Trump. It’s a race of political […] Read more »