… We won’t know until the ballots are counted whether turnout or persuasion was critical in 2020. But with political scientists Seth Hill and Gregory Huber, I’ve released new research that tries to understand the relative influence of each of these approaches in the presidential elections of 2012 and 2016. […] Read more »
Poll Hub: The End of the Trail
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, Election Day is just five days away, and we have new NBC News/Marist Polls of two of the most competitive swing state races around! Where does the contest stand in Florida and North Carolina? Then, Ron Brownstein, Senior Political Analyst for CNN and […] Read more »
Biden leads Trump by six in North Carolina
Joe Biden holds a modest six-point lead with likely voters over President Donald Trump in the hard-fought swing state of North Carolina, a new NBC/Marist poll shows. Among likely voters, Biden’s support stands at 52 percent, compared to 46 percent for the incumbent president. … The poll also shows a […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Biden’s lead over Trump narrows slightly to 8 points
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump has narrowed a touch to 8 points from a 10-point advantage in early October, according to a Fox News national survey of likely voters. Biden is ahead by a 52-44 percent margin. It was 53-43 percent three weeks ago. His lead […] Read more »
Why the 2020s Could Be as Dangerous as the 1850s
If Joe Biden beats Donald Trump decisively next week, this election may be remembered as a hinge point in American history: the moment when a clear majority of voters acknowledged that there’s no turning back from America’s transformation into a nation of kaleidoscopic diversity, a future that doesn’t rely on […] Read more »
Final NPR Electoral Map: Biden Has The Edge, But Trump Retains Narrow Path
The final NPR Electoral College map analysis shows Democrat Joe Biden going into Election Day with the clear edge, while President Trump has a narrow but not impossible path through the states key to winning the presidency. Among states leaning or likely to go in a particular candidate’s direction, Biden […] Read more »