… We won’t know until the ballots are counted whether turnout or persuasion was critical in 2020. But with political scientists Seth Hill and Gregory Huber, I’ve released new research that tries to understand the relative influence of each of these approaches in the presidential elections of 2012 and 2016. In explaining the 2012 to 2016 shift, it turns out that persuasion mattered more in the places that swung most decisively to the GOP. CONT.
Daniel J. Hopkins (Penn), Monkey Cage