… One of my favorite work-related pastimes is sifting through polling data (I know, it’s sad). In my favorite national survey, the NBC/WSJ poll, Clinton led Trump overall by 9 percentage points, 47 to 38 percent, in the two-way ballot test. … It is the demographic splits that are most […] Read more »
Donald Trump’s Red-State Problem
… The simple way to think about Mr. Trump’s strength is in terms of education among white voters. He hopes to do much better than Mitt Romney did in 2012 among white voters without a degree so that he can make up the margin of Mr. Romney’s four-point defeat and […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton’s Millennial Challenge
The Millennial Generation is poised to exert more influence in the 2016 election than ever before. And yet paradoxically, the generation today stands as one of the knottiest challenges facing Hillary Clinton in her race against Donald Trump, a candidate who, polls show, most of them disdain. Though the Democratic […] Read more »
One Nation, Divisible By Demography and Ideology
Many people have said this before, but it’s worth saying again: If a few years ago, someone wrote a political potboiler with a plot that matched the campaign of the past 18 months, nobody would believe it, and it probably wouldn’t have been published. … We should probably get over […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton’s Continuing Youth Problem
Hillary Clinton and her campaign team will almost certainly use President Barack Obama’s winning battle plan from 2008 and 2012 as a starting point for mapping out their own strategy for her fall campaign against Donald Trump. Clinton’s hope would be to replicate Obama’s success with the same constituency of […] Read more »
Clinton vs. Trump: Who’s Benefiting Most From Wedge Politics in 2016?
As the first woman to win a major-party nomination, Hillary Clinton has been expected to draw an outsize share of women voters this fall. With her promise to raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations, she has been expected to do well with liberals. Her contention that racial injustices deserve […] Read more »