The list of voting groups generally alienated by Donald J. Trump is long: Hispanics, women, the young, the college educated and more. How is it that he’s in such a close race with Hillary Clinton? The answer lies with a group that still represented nearly half of all voters in […] Read more »
The End Of A Republican Party
… Many have assumed that adherence to a certain conservative purity was the engine of the GOP, and given the party’s demographic homogeneity, this made sense. But re-evaluating recent history in light of Trump, and looking a bit closer at this year’s numbers, something else seems to be the primary […] Read more »
Trump, Clinton, and the Realignment of Battleground States
The tumultuous 2016 presidential race appears poised to realign the states at the tipping point of American politics. Since Bill Clinton’s first victory in 1992, Democratic presidential candidates have consistently run better in the aging, predominantly white and heavily blue-collar swing states clustered in the Rustbelt than in the younger, […] Read more »
Why Ohio Picks the President
… Every four years, Ohio voters end up speaking for more than just themselves, whether they realize it or not. While Ohio is not always or even often the single state that decides who becomes president of the United States, its consistent presence near the average national voting has cemented […] Read more »
The Evangelicals and the Great Trump Hope
… For white evangelical Protestants, Mr. Trump’s general vow to “make America great again” means something specific. Mr. Trump stepped into the spotlight just as the curtain was coming down on the era of white Protestant dominance. Mr. Trump’s ascendancy has turned the 2016 election into a referendum on the […] Read more »
Clinton Targets College-Educated Whites in Bid for Swing States
Hillary Clinton’s path to the White House relies on reassembling the winning Obama coalition of minority voters and women, but her campaign is vying for a demographic long out of reach for Democrats—college-educated whites—that could reshape the map of U.S. swing states this year. For decades, white voters with at […] Read more »