What will Trump loyalists’ sensed powerlessness mean for politics?

… Trump’s base is angry about government restrictions on their freedom and believe they are fighting to save the “American way of life” from cancel culture and Black Lives Matter’s violent attacks on police and white people. We conducted focus groups in March with Trump Loyalists in Georgia and Wisconsin […] Read more »

The House: Unclear Lines, Clear Expectations

Key Points• Delays in the redistricting process mean that we won’t be releasing Crystal Ball House district ratings for the foreseeable future.• However, midterm history along with GOP advantages in redistricting make the Republicans clear, though not certain, favorites to win the House next year.• Recent midterm history helps illustrate […] Read more »

We See the Left. We See the Right. Can Anyone See the ‘Exhausted Majority’?

… Morris Fiorina, a political scientist at Stanford, argues in a series of essays and a book, “Unstable Majorities,” that it is the structure of the two-party system that prevents the center — the moderate majority of American voters — from asserting their dominion over national politics: Given multiple dimensions […] Read more »

Democrats Will Lose Elections in 2022 and 2024 if They do Not Offer a Plausible Strategy for Reducing the Surge of Immigrants at the Border

Democratic officeholders and candidates who plan to run in 2022 and 2024 need to face a simple, brutal fact – many will lose their next elections and will return control of government to the GOP if they do not offer a more plausible strategy for reducing the surge of immigrants […] Read more »