Key Points• The predictive power of demographics makes county margins strongly correlated and thus inferable from each other. Comparing the actual results to the expected results based on county demographics gives us a better idea of candidate performance.• In the 2020 presidential election, Democrats overperformed in states with high numbers […] Read more »
The Fate of Biden’s Agenda Hangs in the Balance
Every 10 years, after the collection of census data, states are required to redraw the boundaries of their congressional districts to ensure that they remain equal in population. The process — as readers of this newspaper know — is vulnerable to gerrymandering, in which districts are redrawn to give favored […] Read more »
Do You Think You Can Tell How a Neighborhood Voted Just by Looking Around?
An interactive, street-level quiz on America’s full political landscape Most readers who have played so far are pretty good at this game, at least in certain kinds of places. The precincts that voted overwhelmingly for Donald J. Trump or just as heavily for Joe Biden were generally the easiest for […] Read more »
Why Republicans aren’t likely to budge on gun control
The political script following the recent mass shootings in Boulder, Colorado, and Atlanta feels all too familiar. Democrats, led by President Joe Biden, want Congress to pass gun control legislation, most notably universal background checks, while Republicans are balking. The motions are so familiar that I wrote an article three […] Read more »
Why Biden has an immigration policy problem
The US-Mexico border crisis is one of the first noncoronavirus-related issues to break through the news cycle during President Joe Biden’s administration. Republicans are playing up the surge of people trying to cross the border, while Democrats are hoping that Biden can figure out a way to deal with it. […] Read more »
A Top G.O.P. Pollster on Trump 2024, QAnon and What Republicans Really Want
… So what is it that the Republican Party, the real Republican Party, the Republican Party that loves Donald Trump and wants to see him run again, what does that Republican Party believe? What do they prioritize? What do they emphasize in politics? What do they think all this is […] Read more »