Democrats have to defy history to hold onto the House in the 2022 midterms. As I’ve noted before, the president’s party almost always loses House seats in the midterms. History, though, is a guide, not a fortune teller. This week’s special election in New Mexico’s 1st congressional district is part […] Read more »
Reading the Tea Leaves in the NM-01 Special Election
On Tuesday, Democrat state Rep. Melanie Stansbury cruised to victory in the special election to fill the Albuquerque-based House seat of former Democratic Rep. (and now Interior Secretary) Deb Haaland. That Stansbury would win this seat was never really in doubt. Instead, the bigger question was whether she’d be able […] Read more »
The NM-1 Special: Democrats Hold Serve
Key Points• Democrats turned in an impressive victory in Tuesday night’s special election in NM-1. This comes a month after Republicans scored an impressive performance of their own in the first round of the TX-6 special.• Democratic performance represented an improvement over both Barack Obama and Joe Biden’s showings in […] Read more »
Demographics were expected to push Florida left. Instead, they nudged it to the right.
Democrats are gaining ground in growing, urbanizing, racially diverse states. … But there’s an important exception to this pattern: Florida. Florida is home to expanding metros such as Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville. Almost half of Floridians are people of color, and the state’s population is increasing. Yet Florida voted […] Read more »
A More Cautious Approach To Special Elections
At this point two years ago, all eyes were on the special election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District. By Election Day on June 20, 2017, more than $55M had been spent in the race to replace former GOP Rep./HHS Secretary Tom Price in this suburban Atlanta district. … Before that, […] Read more »
What New Mexico’s special election can tell us about the midterms
Tuesday’s special election to represent New Mexico’s 1st District in Congress is just one race. No matter who wins — likely the Democratic candidate Melanie Stansbury — control of Congress won’t change. Yet, this race will also be one of our first insights into the political environment a little more […] Read more »