Reading the Tea Leaves in the NM-01 Special Election

On Tuesday, Democrat state Rep. Melanie Stansbury cruised to victory in the special election to fill the Albuquerque-based House seat of former Democratic Rep. (and now Interior Secretary) Deb Haaland. That Stansbury would win this seat was never really in doubt. Instead, the bigger question was whether she’d be able to match Haaland’s (16 points) and Joe Biden’s (23 points) 2020 margins of victory. Anything less would raise Republican hopes (and Democrats fears) of a Democratic ‘enthusiasm’ gap for the upcoming midterms: a clear sign that Democrats will struggle to motivate their base without Trump on the ballot or in the White House.

Instead, Stansbury exceeded both Haaland and Biden’s vote share, taking 60 percent to 36 percent for Republican state Sen. Mark Moores. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report

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