Four months before the election, Democracy Corps started conducting deep qualitative and quantitative research with the base voters who identify with the Republican Party. The findings paint a picture very different from the one that assumes the GOP is Trump’s party. That realization reveals big opportunities for progressives in the […] Read more »
What August Ratings Can Tell Us About November Results
In July of 2006, The Cook Political Report rated just 14 GOP-held seats as highly vulnerable. By November, the number of GOP-held seats in danger had tripled to 43. We saw a similar pattern in 2010. In August of that year, we listed 36 Democratic-held seats as highly vulnerable. By […] Read more »
Erosion, polarization, and norm violations: Bright Line Watch Survey Report
Donald Trump is a disruptor. Few would disagree that his actions and style of political combat set him apart from past presidents. There is less consensus about the implications of Trump’s distinctive governing style for the health of American democracy, however. To understand how Americans rate their democracy in the […] Read more »
Senate Observations: Placing 2018 in the Context of Upper Chamber Elections Since 1913
As the Crystal Ball has noted repeatedly since early 2017, the Senate elections in the 2018 cycle feature two contrasting forces: highly polarized, partisan voting in elections running up against a tendency for non-presidential party incumbents to do well in midterms, even in states that backed the other party in […] Read more »
Is Bannon right that white, college-educated women have given up on Republicans?
Earlier this month, former White House adviser Stephen K. Bannon told the Daily Beast that while college-educated women were tricky for President Trump and Republicans, their votes might still be within reach. “College-educated Republican women in the suburbs are a challenge,” he said. “You are not going to be able […] Read more »
A Census Question That Could Change How Power Is Divided in America
A citizenship question on the 2020 census has already drawn challenges from states that fear an undercount of immigrants and a loss of federal funds. But demographers say there could be even deeper consequences: The question could generate the data necessary to redefine how political power is apportioned in America. […] Read more »