Most strategists and analysts say this November’s midterms will be determined by turnout. According to this view, whichever party more fully energizes its partisans will come out on top. New data, though, shows this common wisdom has it exactly backward. It’s the voters who sit between the two parties, not […] Read more »
65 races will decide the House. Here’s how Democrats could take control.
With 95 days to go until Election Day, the House majority is up for grabs. President Donald Trump’s below-average approval ratings, Democrats’ enthusiasm edge and a historic number of GOP open seats make Democrats the slight favorites to take control in the lower chamber. But what’s their route to picking […] Read more »
What Ohio’s special election will tell us about November
The Ohio special election in the 12th Congressional District is coming down to the wire. In the last major tea leaves before the 2018 midterms, an average of recent polls puts Republican Troy Balderson just ahead of Democrat Danny O’Connor in their bid to succeed Republican Pat Tiberi. In a […] Read more »
Study shows Democratic voter enthusiasm surging
As the 2018 primary season has rolled through the spring and summer, Democratic enthusiasm and turnout has been a dominant story in state after state, from New York to California. This week, the Pew Research Center put all those state-level stories into a national context with some eye-grabbing numbers. The […] Read more »
Polls and history continue to point to a Ted Cruz victory in Texas
A new Quinnipiac University poll finds that Republican Sen. Ted Cruz holds a 49% to 43% lead over Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the Texas US Senate race. Cruz has led in every poll of the race taken in the last year. The average poll over the last two months has […] Read more »
Kennedy Institute Poll: Americans Speak on the United States Senate
In an effort to better understand Americans’ knowledge of and perceptions about the United States Senate, the Edward M. Kennedy Institute for the United States Senate partnered with leading Republican and Democratic polling firms Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research Associates to conduct a bipartisan national survey assessing how voters […] Read more »