… The presidential voting pattern of a district has become a very strong predictor of how it will vote in House elections. That’s why you’ll consistently hear folks like myself cite the presidential voting patterns and pretty much only the presidential voting patterns of a district to help explain why […] Read more »
Democrats’ hopes of winning in the South hinge on the suburbs
One key measure of any Democratic wave in the midterm elections will be whether it crests high enough to overcome the formidable Republican defenses in the growing suburbs across the South. The answer will have implications that extend far beyond 2018. While Democrats have notched significant gains since the 1990s […] Read more »
Was the Midwestern ‘Red Shift’ More Pro-Trump or Anti-Hillary? The Answer Matters a Lot for 2018
… In general, one of the most challenging aspects of analyzing events in real time is distinguishing temporary blips from long-term trends. Popular pundits and other media figures often tend to overstate the degree to which immediate events portend long-term patterns; as I noted once in another context, “There’s a […] Read more »
99 Days to Go, and the Midterm Elections Battleground Is Not What Was Expected
The battleground in the fight for control of the House is starting to come into focus with 99 days to go until the November election. It’s not exactly the battleground that analysts expected. It’s not dominated by well-educated, suburban districts that voted for Hillary Clinton. Instead, the battleground is broad, […] Read more »
The wave that’s building for November may not be blue so much as pink
Given the wealth of news stories in any given five-minute period and given the focus on the battle to control the House in November’s midterm elections, there has been a consistent pattern to the tenure of President Trump that often goes unmentioned: the steady and active opposition of a majority […] Read more »
What’s Good for Democracy Is Also Good for Democrats
… While it is tempting to view elections as being decided in the moment, much of the groundwork is set in place decades earlier. Looking at survey data from the 1950s, political scientists observed that voters who came of age during the Great Depression identified as Democrats at much higher […] Read more »