This week’s competitive primaries in Arizona and Florida suggest the midterm elections could provide revealing signals on one of the most important questions facing the two parties over the next decade: Can Democrats overturn the Republican advantage in the rapidly growing Sun Belt? CONT. Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic Read more »
Dark Days Ahead for Trump and the GOP
This week’s developments—the guilty verdict of Paul Manafort, President Trump’s former campaign head found guilty on tax and bank-fraud charges, and the guilty plea by Michael Cohen, Trump’s longtime personal lawyer, for campaign-finance-law violations which he says were directed by Trump—have to leave Republicans unnerved. And then there was Wednesday’s […] Read more »
A Labor Day Status Report
We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor Day weekend and the start of the sprint to Election Day, we thought we’d do something different. Instead of key points from this article, here are some key points about […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election Using National Polls and District Information
The Bafumi-Erikson-Wlezien team first applied our model in 2006 and were among the first to predict the return of the Democratic majority. That forecast was off by only two seats. Like most others, our model predicted a Republican takeover in 2010, underestimating the GOP swing by about 10 seats. In […] Read more »
Impeachment? It’s the elephant in the room this election season
The elephant in the room for the Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll released Wednesday is the question of impeachment. Democrats want it, but they don’t want to talk about it in districts held by Republicans; it could rile up the GOP base and backfire on the effort to take over the […] Read more »
Millennials disillusioned about midterm elections
Millennials are disillusioned about political institutions and the 2018 midterms, according to results from a new NBC News/GenForward survey. … Despite Democrats maintaining higher favorable ratings than Republicans and being the favored party candidates for the 2018 midterms across time, Democrats still face a challenge when it comes to inspiring […] Read more »