… Do voters care about campaign finance violations? Yes. In new research, we argue that campaign finance violations inform voters’ views about the elected official’s character. Members of Congress who were randomly audited and found to have violated campaign finance law fared about 5 percentage points worse in their general […] Read more »
Center for Politics, Ipsos Public Affairs Release New Midterm Election Forecasting Tools
The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos today launched the UVA Center for Politics-Ipsos Political Atlas. The new site combines Sabato’s Crystal Ball race ratings for every House, Senate, and gubernatorial race; Ipsos’ poll-based modeling; and Ipsos’ tracking of social media trends. CONT. U. of Virginia Center for […] Read more »
John McCain was one reformer who relished the fight
… McCain’s record places him clearly on one side of a central divide in American political history. The historian John Milton Cooper, in his classic 1983 joint biography of Presidents Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson, identified them as the archetypes of two breeds of reformer: the warrior (Roosevelt) who reveled […] Read more »
Arizona and Florida show how tough the Senate map is for Democrats
If Democrats are going to have a realistic shot of winning the Senate, they will have to win the races in two of the states with primaries on Tuesday: Arizona and Florida. If they lose either one, their chance to win the Senate goes down precipitously. Democrats have an uphill […] Read more »
‘It Is the Era of Trump’: How the President Is Remaking the Republican Party
… After more than two decades of tension within the GOP between a restive base and its traditional establishment, Trumpism, the archetypal grass-roots movement, is winning. With the 2018 primaries about to end, all but two of the 37 Republicans Mr. Trump has endorsed for House, Senate and governor during […] Read more »
John McCain’s 2000 Campaign and the Republican Road Not Taken
In 2000, John McCain’s “Straight Talk Express” barreled down what has become the road not taken for the Republican Party. McCain’s 2000 bid for the GOP presidential nomination is best remembered for his irreverence in the hours he spent happily jousting with reporters on the bus while his campaign strategists […] Read more »