It may not be easy for Democrats to take the House majority, as they have to win a string of districts in Republican territory and get strong turnout, but they head into Tuesday in position to do so — even if narrowly. CBS News ran three scenarios. Scenario one is […] Read more »
Democrats hold 7-point edge in final national NBC/WSJ poll
Democrats hold a 7-point advantage over Republicans in the final national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll before Tuesday’s midterm elections, with both parties showing record enthusiasm and interest in the upcoming contests. … Trump’s job rating among likely voters is 46 percent approve, 52 percent disapprove – essentially unchanged from […] Read more »
The battle for the Sun Belt
Opportunity and necessity alike are pushing Democrats to focus more intently on gaining ground across the Sun Belt in next week’s election, from Florida and Georgia in the Southeast to Nevada and Arizona in the Southwest. The opportunity comes from changing demographics: with their young, diverse populations and in most […] Read more »
Trump’s unpopularity and broad gap in trust to handle health care keep Democrats in the hunt to take control of Congress
President Trump’s unpopularity and a broad gap in trust to handle health care are keeping Democrats in the hunt to take control of Congress, but with an advantage that’s narrowed from its summertime peak. … With Trump pushing to turn out his core support groups, the election stands more than […] Read more »
Democrats lead in House preferences, but positive views of the economy and concern about border security may buoy Republicans
Heading into Tuesday’s critical midterm elections, Democrats retain their advantage in the battle for the House, but Republicans could be buoyed by increasingly positive assessments of the economy and by President Trump’s harsh focus on the issues of immigration and border security, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News national […] Read more »
Republicans Need A Systematic Polling Error To Win The House
As I wrote earlier this week, Democrats almost certainly need a systematic polling error to win the Senate. By that I mean: They need for the polls to be off everywhere, or at least in certain key clusters of states, to win the Senate. … What might be more surprising […] Read more »