Key Points• Perceptions of the presidential race could have some impact down the ballot.• Ticket-splitting is on the decline, but plenty of voters will vote for different parties for president and House, perhaps to the benefit of candidates from both parties.• We are making 14 House rating changes, 10 in […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Biden tops Trump among likely voters in key states
Democrat Joe Biden is ahead in three key states that President Donald Trump won in 2016, according to new Fox News statewide surveys of Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Support for reelecting Trump falls below his 2016 vote share in each state. At the same time, there’s room for improvement, […] Read more »
We Don’t Know Yet Whether Unrest In Kenosha And Portland Will Help Trump
There’s been media speculation over the past week that unrest in places like Kenosha, Wisconsin, and Portland, Oregon, could reshape the presidential race and hurt Democratic nominee Joe Biden. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew discusses why there is not yet evidence to back up these assertions. They also preview Tuesday’s […] Read more »
What Happens After November 3?
Key Points• The most critical moments in the 2020 election will come after Election Day, Nov. 3.• Millions of mail ballots induced by the coronavirus will delay final results in some states for several weeks after the election.• Congress is most likely to certify a Biden victory, but Trump (or […] Read more »
Massachusetts: Markey up 12 Points in U.S. Senate Primary
Incumbent Edward Markey has opened up a double-digit lead over challenger U.S. Rep. Joseph Kennedy III one week before the Democratic primary in the race for U.S. Senate, according to a new poll of Massachusetts voters released today. Conducted by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion, the poll of […] Read more »
Biden’s New Consolidated Lead In The Battleground
Democracy Corps’ phone, mostly cell poll with 1,500 respondents in sixteen battleground states shows Joe Biden and the Democrats moving into the kind of lead it needs to deny Donald Trump the ability to disrupt Election Day. The poll was conducted after the selection of Senator Harris and the launch […] Read more »