During the long legal battle in Florida that ultimately determined the 2000 presidential election, Al Gore, the Democratic nominee, specifically discouraged Jesse Jackson, the veteran civil-rights leader, from organizing public protests to demand a full counting of the disputed ballots. Gore wanted to fight solely in the courts, though that […] Read more »
AARP Battleground Polls Find Trump-Biden Race Still up for Grabs
Voters across 11 key battleground states are divided in their support for President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, according to the results of new AARP battleground state polls. The surveys also show that with control of the U.S. Senate also hanging in the balance, races in a […] Read more »
Joe Biden might win in a landslide. That would make things more complicated.
For weeks, the mantra of the data nerd has been that President Trump can still win reelection. The Democratic nightmare scenario — Trump loses the popular vote but again wins the electoral college — is very much still on the table. But the same statistical models that show a path […] Read more »
Trump’s small convention bump could salvage GOP Senate hopes
With less than two months to go until the election—and with the critical battleground of North Carolina already sending out mail-in ballots—it’s worth taking stock of where things stand. Based on the slew of post-convention polls and conversations with Republican and Democratic strategists, there’s a consensus that the president received […] Read more »
Democrats Made Gains From Multiple Sources in 2018 Midterm Victories
Compared with Hillary Clinton’s 2-point popular vote advantage over Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, the Democratic Party expanded its margin over the Republican Party to 9 points in votes cast for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018, a gain of 7 percentage points. This increased support was […] Read more »
Trump erases Biden’s lead in Texas, as Hegar chips away at Cornyn’s edge in Senate race
Texas remains a toss-up in the presidential race. But Democrat Joe Biden’s modest – and somewhat startling – lead over President Donald Trump has evaporated in the last two months. From a 5-point edge in early July, Biden now lags Trump by 2 points among likely Texas voters in a […] Read more »