Right now, things could hardly be looking brighter for Democrats. At the top of the ticket, the presidential race is looking as good as they could ever have hoped. Downballot, their majority in the House is looking sturdy and their chances of winning control of the Senate are very good, […] Read more »
A Defense of Election Forecasting Models
Key Points• While there is a legitimate debate about the public utility of forecast models, these are tools people in politics, finance, and media use to understand the political environment and make informed decisions. These private goods have corresponding public ones.• Campaign forecasting models, at least the Decision Desk HQ/Øptimus […] Read more »
Democrats’ hunger to break the old political system grows ahead of 2020 election
As they kick off an all-virtual convention this week, Democrats aren’t just pursuing more progressive policies than they have in generations: Party leaders are also warming up to changing the rules of a system many of their voters decry as undemocratic. Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has called for […] Read more »
Biden remains ahead of Trump nationally on eve of conventions in NBC News/WSJ poll
President Donald Trump continues to trail Democratic challenger Joe Biden nationally as more than 60 percent of voters say America’s response to the coronavirus has been unsuccessful and just one-in-five believe the U.S. economy is on solid footing. Those are the major findings from the latest national NBC News/Wall Street […] Read more »
A big sign Trump is a weak candidate
It’s often been said that President Donald Trump is “underperforming the fundamentals”. Some believe Trump’s doing worse than the average Republican president would be doing in the polls under similar circumstances. It’s difficult to prove that, however. But at least one key indicator suggests Trump is, indeed, doing worse than […] Read more »
Processing a New Kind of Election Night
The surge in absentee ballots because of the coronavirus could mean the outcome of the presidential race remains undetermined for weeks after the first Tuesday in November. … Caitlin Conant, Political Director of CBS News and Rick Klein, the Political Director of ABC News describe how they’re preparing both their […] Read more »