The month of May is a consequential one for former President Donald Trump. In the twelve states that hold primaries that month, the former president has endorsed Republican candidates for Governor, Senate, and/or House in all but two. … At the end of the month, most of the attention will […] Read more »
Trump-District House Democrats Could Become Extinct This November
Key Points• The number of “crossover” districts — those won by different parties for president and House — has generally been declining over time.• Under the current congressional district lines, there were only 16 crossover districts in 2020, with Republicans winning 9 Biden-won seats and Democrats winning 7 Trump-won seats.• […] Read more »
Are Democrats Headed for a Shellacking in the Midterm Election?
Key Points• Presidential party midterm losses are a regular feature of American politics.• President Biden’s numbers are weak as well. But it may be that Democrats are insulated in some ways from a potential “shellacking.”• Democrats are very likely to lose their House majority, although their total net loss is […] Read more »
A recession would only deepen Democratic woes
As awful as the last 15 months have been for Democrats since they completed the electoral trifecta of winning control of the White House, the House, and the Senate, there is a strong chance that things get a lot worse. Last summer it was Afghanistan that began to weigh down […] Read more »
January 6th, Roe v. Wade as the Known Unknowns for 2022
When asked in early 2002 to provide evidence that Saddam Hussein tried to supply weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups, then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld replied, “There are known knowns — there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns — that is to say, […] Read more »
The Religion of the Supreme Court Justices
In her Senate Judiciary confirmation hearings in March, Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson was asked by South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, “What faith are you, by the way?” Jackson replied that she was a nondenominational Protestant. Jackson, who was confirmed by the Senate on Thursday, will be only the […] Read more »