… Mathematical election predictions can seem both tantalizing and frustratingly opaque. People want to know what will happen, especially in an election as consequential as this one, but they often don’t understand how the people who build these predictive tools reach their conclusions. They may be dazzled by the presentation […] Read more »
Is the ‘Convention Bounce’ a Thing of the Past?
A national political convention gives presidential candidates their first major opportunity of the campaign to connect with a national audience, reaching viewers by the millions and kicking off the race’s climactic final leg. Until recently, it also usually meant the candidate would get a bump in the polls — like […] Read more »
Young voters prefer Biden, but they may not vote
There is good news for former Vice President Joe Biden when it comes to younger voters. He’s no longer underperforming where Hillary Clinton ended up in the final 2016 polls. The big question coming out of the Democratic National Convention is whether they’ll actually start to like him. Going in, […] Read more »
How Biden could still lose
After three hard years of fuming over President Trump, it has been a reassuring summer for Democrats. The Biden campaign had a strong convention, capped by a best-of-career speech by Joe Biden. Party fundraising is surging, and the polls look excellent. But a good campaign is a paranoid campaign, especially […] Read more »
The Democratic Convention’s Big Blind Spot
… Biden projected passion, energy, and solidity in remarks that more closely resembled a grave presidential address from the Oval Office than the typical raucous convention speech. In his manner as much as his words, Biden offered a contrast to Trump’s belligerent volatility—and to the GOP’s portrayal of him as […] Read more »
Can Biden Undercut Trump’s Continued Advantage on the Economy?
The most recent national polls have been pretty bleak for President Trump. All show him trailing Biden anywhere from four to 12 points. A majority of voters disapprove of the way he’s handling the coronavirus pandemic. And, less than one-third of the public think the economy is in good shape. […] Read more »