A month ago, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said out loud what many Republicans were undoubtedly feeling. Effectively, the message was: We’ve got a shot at a good 2022 midterm election, but some of these Trump candidates could screw it all up for us. At the time, there was […] Read more »
Arizona’s Latino voters and political independents could spell midterm defeats for MAGA candidates
Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona marches in a Fourth of July parade in Arizona on July 4, 2022. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images Gina Woodall, Arizona State University Two years after the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump’s resentment over losing continues to energize his supporters in […] Read more »
These five states may send a powerful message about 2024. But will Republicans hear it?
This November, the states that decided the last presidential race may send a powerful signal about the next one. President Joe Biden assembled his winning Electoral College majority in 2020 by flipping five states that had supported Donald Trump four years earlier: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin across the Rust Belt […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Kelly holds 8-point lead over Masters in Arizona Senate race
Republican candidates have some convincing to do among their base, as Democrats hold the early advantage in battleground Arizona. The latest Fox News Poll of Arizona registered voters finds incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly with an 8 percentage-point lead over Republican Blake Masters (50% to 42%) in the U.S. Senate […] Read more »
Manchin, Sinema and 2024
By helping Democrats pass a landmark $750 billion climate, tax and health care bill, Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona have complicated their own re-election fortunes for 2024. Why it matters: While Democrats have a credible chance to hold onto a narrow Senate majority this […] Read more »
Focus Group Report: Pro-Choice Democrats and Republicans on Abortion
On June 15, 2022, GBAO conducted three focus groups online with Democratic and Republican women who varied across demographics—age, education, and race. Key takeaways• Among those who are pro-choice, abortion is a highly salient issue.• Most would feel “revolted” or “angry” if Roe were overturned.• There is some division as […] Read more »