… While former President Donald Trump holds a tight grasp on much of the GOP base, there is a notable minority of Republican voters who do not consider themselves MAGA members. Most of them, as faithful Republicans, backed GOP candidates in 2022, AP VoteCast shows. Still, the extensive national survey […] Read more »
National Swing Women Voters Executive Summary
Funded by Horizon Strategies and directed entirely by the two companies, we took an in-depth look at two small, but consequential groups in the electorate: Republican women who did not vote straight party in 2022 and Independent women who voted for candidates of both parties. CONTINUED Nicole McCleskey (Public Opinion […] Read more »
Independent voters can be decisive in elections – but they’re pretty unpredictable, not ‘shadow partisans’
Pennsylvania’s independent voters helped elect Democrat John Fetterman, seen here, over the GOP contender for the U.S. Senate seat, Mehmet Oz. Jeff Swensen/Getty Images Thom Reilly, Arizona State University In the end there was no red wave. And there was no blue wave. There was an independent wave. Pollsters and […] Read more »
What Does Threat to Democracy Mean To Swing Voters?
On the eve of the midterm elections last fall, President Biden delivered a speech in which he argued that the central issue for 2022 was the threat to our democracy. Many pundits, and even some high-profile Democrats, criticized Biden’s messaging. After all, poll after poll showed that the economy and […] Read more »
In elections, a win is a win. And Republicans won
… Republicans won the House, after just four years, but with a thin margin. Voters, especially independents, were motivated by economic issues, their unhappiness with the direction of the country and President Joe Biden’s leadership, and they wanted solutions. But a poor Republican economic campaign message, focused on attacking Pelosi […] Read more »
Gold-standard polls got it right in 2022. Others did not
Over the New Year’s holiday weekend, the New York Times published a 4,000-word article noting how some political polls, as well as the polling aggregators, overstated Republicans’ strength in key midterm races, feeding the narrative of a coming “Red Wave” that never came to be. But there’s a far simpler […] Read more »