… Republicans won the House, after just four years, but with a thin margin. Voters, especially independents, were motivated by economic issues, their unhappiness with the direction of the country and President Joe Biden’s leadership, and they wanted solutions. But a poor Republican economic campaign message, focused on attacking Pelosi and Biden without offering solutions, was problematic, as was candidate quality, especially in the Senate races, and they did not want a return of Trump dominance in Washington.
This conclusion is based on The Winston Group’s “Post-election Analysis: It’s the Year of the Independent,” released this week, in which we spent two months dissecting the Edison Research exit poll data and analyzing our Winning the Issues post-election research, along with other data. Unlike what most partisan pundits and politicos and media commentators would have you believe, the “root causes” of the Republicans’ disappointing outcome weren’t mail-in ballots, abortion or voter concern about threats to democracy, though those issues were important to some.
There is a difference between important issues and determinative factors in elections. Here are some of the key takeaways that help explain the Republicans’ win in the House — albeit not a “red wave” — and loss in the Senate. CONTINUED
David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call
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