Key Points• In the second impeachment trial of his presidency, former President Donald Trump was acquitted by the Senate. Seven Republicans joined 50 Democrats in voting to convict Trump.• The sole Republican running for reelection in 2022 who voted to convict Trump was Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) — she has […] Read more »
The Key to Forecasting Midterms: The Generic Ballot
Key Points• Given that Democrats only hold a single-digit majority in the House of Representatives, the 2022 midterms will be extremely competitive.• The generic ballot is the best tool for forecasting the House popular vote, and is especially useful in cycles without presidential races atop the ballot.• From 2004 to […] Read more »
Why Senate Democrats may struggle in 2022
The retirement announcement this week from Sen. Rob Portman is a sign that even as we just finished one election, another one is right around the corner. Democrats seemed to be pleased that the Ohio Republican is stepping aside because beating an incumbent senator is hard. … But history suggests […] Read more »
How Many Voters Can GOP Senators Afford To Offend?
… One thing on the minds of a lot of strategists in both parties is what the residual effect of Trump will be on his party. An impressive amount of unreleased survey research—both quantitative polls and qualitative focus groups—since the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol suggests that between 25 […] Read more »
2022 Senate Races: Initial Ratings
Key Points• Republicans will be defending more Senate seats than Democrats in 2022, but both sides have some potential pickup opportunities — though a large gain for either party seems unlikely.• Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) would have been an overwhelming favorite to win a third term, but even with his […] Read more »
The Big Questions Driving Politics in 2021
After all the tumult and twists and turns of 2020, it seems a bit risky, if not downright ridiculous, to speculate about the things that will drive our politics in the upcoming year. But, there are some issues that I think are going to play important, if not staring roles […] Read more »