Less than two years from now, during Joe Biden’s first midterm election — and assuredly four years from now, during the next presidential contest — one of the two parties is likely to raise an inevitable question: “Are you better off now than you were two — or four — […] Read more »
Ohio Senate: Portman Decision Complicates Race
Republican Sen. Rob Portman is not seeking re-election in Ohio, giving Democrats a glimmer of hope in a seat that didn’t look all that competitive at this early stage of the 2022 cycle. The senator’s comments about “partisan gridlock” will add to the narrative that Republicans are in disarray in […] Read more »
Riots will cost GOP its natural advantage in 2022
The Republican Party is at a crossroads: Break with President Trump, stick with him to maintain support with a majority of the GOP’s voters, or muddle through the next two years with uncertainty. But the direction of the party won’t be determined by party leaders meeting in secret. It will […] Read more »
Why Senate Republicans start the next cycle from a position of strength
Joe Biden will face an enormous obstacle in his first two years of governing: The U.S. Senate. Republicans have already secured 50 seats in the upper chamber, and they might win two more once Georgia’s runoff elections are resolved. The best-case scenario for Biden is a 50-50 split, with future […] Read more »
Senate 2022: An Early Look
Key Points• Democrats may have a better chance of winning the Senate in 2022 than holding the House, even if Democrats lose both Georgia special elections in January.• The president’s party often struggles in midterms, which gives the GOP a generic advantage in the battle for Congress.• The Republicans’ three […] Read more »
The Future Shape of the Senate
Key Points• The Constitution divides the Senate into three “classes” that face the voters on six-year cycles. Under today’s political dynamics, the class that faced the voters in 2018 was favorable to the Republicans, while the class that faces the voters in 2020 is favorable to the Democrats.• What about […] Read more »