… From our vantage point, the data plot line that is the most meaningful for Democrats, as we look ahead to big races in 2021 and the 2022 midterms, is the 6-point increase in independent affiliation from just a few months ago at the end of 2020. Today, 44 percent […] Read more »
It’s anything but the economy, stupid
… Democrats are betting that trillions in economic spending, from an already passed stimulus and a proposed infrastructure and welfare bill, will deliver tangible benefits to Americans, who will in turn reward them in next year’s election. Republicans are betting on the primacy of cultural or social-policy concerns, from the […] Read more »
Why very early signs are good for the GOP in 2022
President Joe Biden’s first two and a half months in office have been far better received than former President Donald Trump’s. Biden’s been able to maintain an approval rating north of 50%; something Trump never did. Yet, a look at the data also reveals that Biden’s Democratic Party has likely […] Read more »
The House: Unclear Lines, Clear Expectations
Key Points• Delays in the redistricting process mean that we won’t be releasing Crystal Ball House district ratings for the foreseeable future.• However, midterm history along with GOP advantages in redistricting make the Republicans clear, though not certain, favorites to win the House next year.• Recent midterm history helps illustrate […] Read more »
Democrats need to write a different ending to this story
Let me be clear: This column is not predicting that Democrats will lose control of the Senate and/or the House in next year’s midterm elections. But I am about to argue that if Democrats lose one or both chambers, they will look back on some of their decisions and actions […] Read more »
Can this political moment of good feelings last?
In our partisan times, it’s hard to find polling results that go against the grain, so to speak. Over the past four years, then-President Trump’s position on any given issue cleaved public opinion along party lines, regardless of the merits. Democrats opposed opening schools simply because Education Secretary Betsy DeVos […] Read more »