The Midterm Elections Are a Jump Ball

We’ve lived through three riveting election cycles in a row—President Trump’s two races, with House Democrats’ midterm triumph sandwiched in the middle. But don’t get comfortable now, because we may be in for another one. With the Senate 50-50 and the current House split 218 to 212, with five vacant […] Read more »

2020 Census: What the Reapportionment Numbers Mean

Today, the Census Bureau unveiled its official 2020 state population counts, determining how many House seats and Electoral votes each state will receive for the next decade. The detailed data needed to draw official district lines won’t be released until the fall. But Republicans, who only need to pick up […] Read more »

Cuomo’s Approval Rating Has Fallen. He Could Still Win Re-Election.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York has not had much good news over the past few months. His poll numbers have not been much of an exception. A new Siena College poll this week found that Mr. Cuomo’s ratings had fallen to the lowest level of his tenure, with […] Read more »

Presidential ‘fast starts’ come with electoral risk

“President Donald Trump is off to a fast start,” I wrote in a Jan. 30, 2017, column for Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, before warning that the same “aggressiveness could produce the same sort of reaction that Barack Obama’s fast start did in 2009: It could lead to a […] Read more »