Voters now say Governor Andrew Cuomo should not resign by a 49-41 percent margin, compared to a 51-37 percent majority who said he should not resign last month, according to a new Siena College poll of registered New York State voters. In a generic Democrat vs. Republican 2022 gubernatorial matchup, […] Read more »
Six months of big change hasn’t changed the political environment
… The Biden presidency entered its fifth month this past week. A lot has happened since Biden took office: We’ve seen a failed impeachment trial, a major economic and coronavirus relief package signed into law and the continuation of a mass vaccination campaign leading to more than 60% of adults […] Read more »
The House: Democrats Would Have a Tough Slog Even Without Redistricting
Key Points• The reapportionment of House seats and pending redistricting has prevented us from releasing U.S. House ratings so far this cycle.• While Republicans stand to gain from this process, they would be favored to win the House even if the district lines were not changing.• Rating the House races […] Read more »
Trump Enthusiasts Are Lowering the Temperature
… Hart Research’s Jeff Horwitt shared with me 15 months of previously unreleased data from the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that his firm conducts alongside GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies for the two news organizations. … The data shows that Republicans who have been seeing themselves as Trump loyalists […] Read more »
Trump’s Engaged Party Defining The Battle For 2022
We conducted a large, mostly cell phone survey with an oversample of Republicans in the 2022 battleground for the U.S. Senate, governorships, and House, and it is painfully clear Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, and Kevin McCarthy know their party. The Trump loyalists who strongly approve of him are two-thirds of […] Read more »
The Senate’s new normal: Tiny, fragile majorities
There’s a new normal in the Senate: tiny majorities. Democrats currently have a shaky one-vote advantage in the upper chamber. Every senator is a potential deal-breaker; Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) — the chamber’s most moderate Democrat — has something akin to veto power over every Democratic proposal. Over the […] Read more »