Democrats defeated President Donald J. Trump and captured the Senate last year with a racially diverse coalition that delivered victories by tiny margins in key states like Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. In the next election, they cannot count on repeating that feat, a new report warns. A review of the […] Read more »
Why Democrats may defy history and win the 2022 midterms
Democrats have to defy history to hold onto the House in the 2022 midterms. As I’ve noted before, the president’s party almost always loses House seats in the midterms. History, though, is a guide, not a fortune teller. This week’s special election in New Mexico’s 1st congressional district is part […] Read more »
A More Cautious Approach To Special Elections
At this point two years ago, all eyes were on the special election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District. By Election Day on June 20, 2017, more than $55M had been spent in the race to replace former GOP Rep./HHS Secretary Tom Price in this suburban Atlanta district. … Before that, […] Read more »
How violent crime and abortion could reshape the 2022 midterm elections
As the public becomes increasingly confident that the pandemic is subsiding and the economy is on the mend, social issues are coming to the fore, and developments in two such areas—crime and abortion—could reshape the playing field for the 2022 midterm elections. When Joe Biden was sworn in as president, […] Read more »
Playing Devil’s Advocate on the Midterms
It may well be easier for a hard-core partisan to observe an election campaign than someone else. After all, passionate Republicans and Democrats often blissfully ignore any potential danger signs for their side, at least until Election Night. Someone without a dog in the fight may be more likely to […] Read more »
Republicans Must Protect Their Brand Ahead of 2022
… Republican leaders and other elected officials in Washington and in many state capitals are projecting great confidence that this election will be a referendum on the incumbent president, rather than on their own actions. Granted, that is the norm, but it doesn’t seem as if many in the Republican […] Read more »