The Child Tax Credit gets a very warm reception from those receiving it. It is received very positively by Blacks, Hispanics and Asian Americans, Millennials and unmarried women in the Democratic base, but also parents, especially white parents, and younger white working class voters. That disrupts the usual pattern of […] Read more »
2022 midterms a referendum on Democrats’ leadership
America remains a deeply divided country during a period of turmoil and political instability. Events since last year’s bitterly fought and close Presidential election have only increased this polarization. Historical patterns suggest that the Republicans are well positioned to do well in the upcoming midterm elections. With only two exceptions […] Read more »
Virus surge sends ripples of alarm through Democrats
The resurgence of the coronavirus has reshaped the early contours of the midterm elections, with some Democrats beginning to distance themselves from the Biden administration and more directly blame Republicans, reflecting their growing alarm on an issue that long played to their political advantage. Democrats had hoped to pivot from […] Read more »
Biden’s Ratings Slip, But It’s More Than Just Delta Fears
Like Donald Trump before him, President Biden didn’t get much of a political honeymoon. Even before he finished his first full week of work at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, an early February Gallup poll found views of the former Vice President were the most polarized of any first-term president at this […] Read more »
The Real Reason Why the Party in Power Struggles in the Midterms
A shorthand explanation for midterm elections has long been that they are “referenda on the incumbent president.” The theory postulates that the party of the White House has lost House seats in 36 out of 39 midterms since the Civil War and Senate seats in 19 out of 26 midterms […] Read more »
Redistricting in America, Part Three: The Republicans’ Southern Prizes
Key Points• Democrats tried but failed to get a seat at the redistricting table in four large Southern states in the 2018 and 2020 cycles: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.• The consequences for redistricting are vitally important. It’s easy to imagine Republicans squeezing a half-dozen extra seats out of […] Read more »