The spread of the new coronavirus has upended American life overnight. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how much we don’t know about the crisis when trying to assess its impact on life and politics. They also discuss how the virus is affecting plans of […] Read more »
Can Democrats Win Back Florida?
A sense of doom spread not long ago among weary Florida Democrats, and not over a viral pandemic. They had lost winnable races for governor and Senate two years ago in nail-biter recounts. Many now feared that the state’s voters, with their reflexive disdain for political revolution, would spurn Bernie […] Read more »
The Democratic debate: Biden’s VP pledge shows that women will be key in 2020
… A funny thing has happened while the country has been focused on Donald Trump’s presidential reality show. Beginning with the march on Washington the day after the 2017 Inauguration and picking up steam with each passing day, women’s opposition to Trump has steadily grown. Trump’s approval ratings (never robust) […] Read more »
Is Biden a shoo-in? Can Sanders come back? Here’s why predicting political outcomes is so hard
It’s been another tough political season for the pundits. Take Super Tuesday. On the Monday before the vote, a typical headline read something like this one from The Hill: “Sanders Poised for Big Super Tuesday.” On Wednesday, those headlines were replaced by ones like this from CNBC: “Super Tuesday results: […] Read more »
What history says about crises, approval ratings and a President running for reelection
… The way voters perceive how Trump and his administration are dealing with coronavirus could go a long way towards determining his reelection fate. And we can track that through his approval rating in the coming weeks and months. Trump’s approval rating is the most important datapoint to look at […] Read more »
Nate Silver: ‘Could Bernie still turn it around? Honestly, probably not’
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver on whether he thinks the 2020 Democratic primaries are over. This Week, ABC News Read more »