The second round of a multi-university project to survey people in all 50 states about their opinions on the COVID-19 pandemic response focused on public opinion around increasing access to vote by mail (VBM) for the upcoming Presidential elections. 60% of respondents across all 50 states said they support making […] Read more »
How Much Trump Could Help (Or Harm) Down-Ballot Republicans In November
Looking ahead to November, the presidential race could decide more than just who the next president is. It could also determine which party controls the Senate or House or even a state’s legislature. And that’s because of something political science calls the “coattail effect,” which is when the popularity of […] Read more »
Recent Polling in the Swing States Favors Biden
Key Points• Recent polling in 13 swing states shows a consistent advantage for Joe Biden over Donald Trump.• The recent 2020 polling results correlate much more strongly with the 2016 election results than with the final 2016 polling results.• This suggests that pollsters have adjusted their sampling and weighting procedures […] Read more »
Does Trump Really Have Unique Appeal Among Working-Class Whites?
In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team discusses comments former Vice President Joe Biden made during a conversation about black voters. The crew also talks through the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election. FiveThirtyEight The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown […] Read more »
Donald Trump’s problems with senior voters started long before the coronavirus
In recent weeks, reporters and political analysts have centered on the challenge that President Trump currently faces with one particular group of voters: seniors. … The most common explanation is the coronavirus. As one recent New York Times article argued, “The coronavirus crisis and the administration’s halting response to it […] Read more »
How Accurate Are State Polls? And What Could That Mean For November?
Our latest recap of the accuracy of polling in American elections reinforced something we’ve been saying for a while: The polls are all right. In particular, polls of presidential general elections have historically been quite accurate. … However, it is not unusual for state polls to be less accurate than […] Read more »