Enough of the talk about the possibility of another split between electoral and popular votes for president, which would be the third in 20 years. Here’s a better challenge for 2020 election aficionados: First, if Republicans only hold onto one thing, is it more likely to be the White House […] Read more »
Memorial Day 2020: Presidential race still leaning Biden
More than two months ago, even before COVID-19 became all-consuming in our lives, I wrote a column arguing that the presidential race had changed from a toss-up/tilting Democratic to leaning Democratic. That significant change had nothing to do with the coronavirus. Instead, it followed from changes in the fundamentals of […] Read more »
Changing Southwest may bring Democrats a milestone win
In a critical mark of the shifting political landscape, Democrats in November could secure a clean sweep of the Senate seats from the four key Southwestern states — a milestone the party hasn’t reached in nearly 80 years. … Even as Democrats struggle to maintain their position in slow-growing, predominantly […] Read more »
Donald Trump, Joe Biden and the Vote of the Irish
In 2016, my vantage point on the donnybrook between Donald and Hillary was an Irish bar in Queens, where I was a bartender a few nights a week. … Half the patrons were Irish immigrants who considered Mr. Trump a real “eejit,” but the other half, the Irish Americans, thought […] Read more »
The VP effect
538’s Nate Silver on whether or not he thinks Joe Biden needs to pick a running mate from a swing state. This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Biden is running ahead of Clinton’s 2016 pace
… Almost any time I explain that Biden’s leading Trump, someone will inevitably bring up “but what about 2016.” That’s why this week marks an important milestone for the Biden campaign. It’s one of the first times during the election year that Biden was clearly running ahead of Hillary Clinton’s […] Read more »