… Polls taken around Independence Day in an election year are actually pretty highly correlated with the November results in incumbent contests. That means Trump is in a lot of trouble. Take a look at the 13 incumbent elections dating all the way back to 1940. Usually going all the […] Read more »
Can Trump Pull Off an Upset Like Harry Truman’s in 1948?
When your presidential candidate is not doing well, it’s not uncommon to look around for historical analogies in which a similarly downtrodden candidate has made a dramatic comeback to win. … So observers looking about for an example Trump might yet emulate are going back 68 years, to Harry Truman’s […] Read more »
Trump’s push to amplify racism unnerves Republicans who have long enabled him
President Trump’s unyielding push to preserve Confederate symbols and the legacy of white domination, crystallized by his harsh denunciation of the racial justice movement Friday night at Mount Rushmore, has unnerved Republicans who have long enabled him but now fear losing power and forever associating their party with his racial […] Read more »
Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout
Whenever I hear an operative complain about public polling, I have just one thing to say: Put up or shut up. Release your own numbers that show the race in a different place than the public polling, or let the public polling stand. This is especially true in House races, […] Read more »
Biden builds lead as Trump goes from trailing to flailing
As recently as one month ago, Donald Trump was merely losing. Now he is flailing, trudging into the Independence Day weekend at the nadir of his presidency, trailing by double digits in recent polls and in danger of dragging the Republican Senate down with him. But there are still four […] Read more »
A massive repudiation of Trump’s racist politics is building
… Trump has accelerated a decades-old trend toward parties redefining themselves by race and racial attitudes. Racial resentment is now the single most important factor driving Republicans and Republican-leaning movers, according to extensive research, most recently by Nicholas Valentino and Kirill Zhirkov at the University of Michigan — more than […] Read more »