Key Points• The Constitution divides the Senate into three “classes” that face the voters on six-year cycles. Under today’s political dynamics, the class that faced the voters in 2018 was favorable to the Republicans, while the class that faces the voters in 2020 is favorable to the Democrats.• What about […] Read more »
How to read Biden’s massive lead in the polls
There are two ways to read both the state and national polling that shows President Trump significantly behind former vice president Joe Biden. You can plausibly argue that the polls are more unreliable on a statewide basis than in 2016, so they’re all irrelevant. Alternatively, you can take the polls […] Read more »
Biden opens up 11-point national lead over Trump in NBC News/WSJ poll
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a double-digit lead nationally over President Donald Trump, with 7 in 10 voters saying the country is on the wrong track, and majorities disapproving of the president’s handling of the coronavirus and race relations. … The NBC News/WSJ poll also shows a whopping […] Read more »
Democrats and Republicans see coronavirus differently
This weekend, President Donald Trump allowed the White House press corps to see him wearing a face mask for the first time. Trump, of course, has been hesitant to wear a mask, and he has retweeted criticism of former Vice President Joe Biden for doing so. The importance of Trump […] Read more »
Trump’s Exhausted Party: GOP Focus Group Report
Democracy Corps just completed our first focus groups of the 2020 election with Republicans and Republican defectors, and this year’s referendum on President Trump threatens to reach even deeper into the Republican Party than the 2018 blue wave. These focus groups provide our first window into the factions pulling off […] Read more »
The Electoral College: The Fringe of the Map Expands
Key Points• President Trump’s position has been perilously weak for a month and a half.• With Joe Biden’s national lead around eight to 10 points, there is a possibility that he could compete for some usually Republican states.• We are moving seven states from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.• Our […] Read more »