The Ohio special election in the 12th Congressional District is coming down to the wire. In the last major tea leaves before the 2018 midterms, an average of recent polls puts Republican Troy Balderson just ahead of Democrat Danny O’Connor in their bid to succeed Republican Pat Tiberi. In a […] Read more »
Study shows Democratic voter enthusiasm surging
As the 2018 primary season has rolled through the spring and summer, Democratic enthusiasm and turnout has been a dominant story in state after state, from New York to California. This week, the Pew Research Center put all those state-level stories into a national context with some eye-grabbing numbers. The […] Read more »
Polls and history continue to point to a Ted Cruz victory in Texas
A new Quinnipiac University poll finds that Republican Sen. Ted Cruz holds a 49% to 43% lead over Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the Texas US Senate race. Cruz has led in every poll of the race taken in the last year. The average poll over the last two months has […] Read more »
The Blue-Collar Elephant in the Room
There’s an elephant in the Republican Party’s midterm room. Discussion about how to close the yawning generic ballot gap has focused on building the wall, selling the tax cuts, and emphasizing how President Trump has delivered on judicial nominees and deregulation. All of these issues are of particular import to […] Read more »
Inside Trump’s GOP: not what you think
Four months before the election, Democracy Corps started conducting deep qualitative and quantitative research with the base voters who identify with the Republican Party. The findings paint a picture very different from the one that assumes the GOP is Trump’s party. That realization reveals big opportunities for progressives in the […] Read more »
What August Ratings Can Tell Us About November Results
In July of 2006, The Cook Political Report rated just 14 GOP-held seats as highly vulnerable. By November, the number of GOP-held seats in danger had tripled to 43. We saw a similar pattern in 2010. In August of that year, we listed 36 Democratic-held seats as highly vulnerable. By […] Read more »