As the Crystal Ball has noted repeatedly since early 2017, the Senate elections in the 2018 cycle feature two contrasting forces: highly polarized, partisan voting in elections running up against a tendency for non-presidential party incumbents to do well in midterms, even in states that backed the other party in […] Read more »
Are young voters going to sway the midterms? New data shows that’s not very likely.
The surge in activism among young Americans about gun laws after February’s Parkland, Fla., shootings, and that group’s general disapproval of President Trump, has raised the prospect that they will turn out at higher rates in this year’s midterm elections. … But a Washington Post analysis of voter registration data […] Read more »
Is Bannon right that white, college-educated women have given up on Republicans?
Earlier this month, former White House adviser Stephen K. Bannon told the Daily Beast that while college-educated women were tricky for President Trump and Republicans, their votes might still be within reach. “College-educated Republican women in the suburbs are a challenge,” he said. “You are not going to be able […] Read more »
Trump isn’t everything in the midterms. Local factors will matter too
… The presidential voting pattern of a district has become a very strong predictor of how it will vote in House elections. That’s why you’ll consistently hear folks like myself cite the presidential voting patterns and pretty much only the presidential voting patterns of a district to help explain why […] Read more »
Democrats’ hopes of winning in the South hinge on the suburbs
One key measure of any Democratic wave in the midterm elections will be whether it crests high enough to overcome the formidable Republican defenses in the growing suburbs across the South. The answer will have implications that extend far beyond 2018. While Democrats have notched significant gains since the 1990s […] Read more »
Was the Midwestern ‘Red Shift’ More Pro-Trump or Anti-Hillary? The Answer Matters a Lot for 2018
… In general, one of the most challenging aspects of analyzing events in real time is distinguishing temporary blips from long-term trends. Popular pundits and other media figures often tend to overstate the degree to which immediate events portend long-term patterns; as I noted once in another context, “There’s a […] Read more »