Today, the NAACP released results from a new poll, conducted for the NAACP by the African American Research Collaborative and Latino Decisions, pulling data from voters in 61 of the nation’s most competitive midterm races. The poll analyzed views of African American, White, Latino, Asian American, and Native American voters […] Read more »
Trump’s Kobach endorsement could cost the GOP a governor’s race in red Kansas
President Donald Trump endorsed Kris Kobach ahead of Tuesday’s Kansas Republican gubernatorial primary. The endorsement doesn’t come as a surprise, but should Kobach win, it could cost the Republican Party a governor’s seat in deep red Kansas. Why? To start, Kobach, who is Kansas’ secretary of state, is mired in […] Read more »
Trump may not be enough to swing Latino turnout Democrats’ way
Democrats have hit an unexpected speed bump in their drive to regain control of Congress: unsettling signs that the party may not generate as much turnout or support among Latino voters this fall as it expected. Despite a procession of provocations from President Donald Trump — from ending deportation protections […] Read more »
Politics Podcast: Should The Press Respond To Trump’s Attacks?
President Trump’s attacks on the press have reached a new level in recent weeks. On Sunday, he called the press, “very dangerous & sick” and wrote that the media can “cause War.” The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team talks about what the goal of the president’s rhetoric is and how the […] Read more »
Why the Midterms Won’t Be Won by Playing to the Base
Most strategists and analysts say this November’s midterms will be determined by turnout. According to this view, whichever party more fully energizes its partisans will come out on top. New data, though, shows this common wisdom has it exactly backward. It’s the voters who sit between the two parties, not […] Read more »
65 races will decide the House. Here’s how Democrats could take control.
With 95 days to go until Election Day, the House majority is up for grabs. President Donald Trump’s below-average approval ratings, Democrats’ enthusiasm edge and a historic number of GOP open seats make Democrats the slight favorites to take control in the lower chamber. But what’s their route to picking […] Read more »