I am frequently asked what the “surprise elections” will be this fall. After all, there are always a few races whose outcome—or near outcome, the results much closer than expected—seem to come out of the blue. … The surprise outcome in November 2016 was the disparity between the state-level polls […] Read more »
Trump Claims Election Night Credit. It’s Not That Simple.
In President Trump’s mind, he has become the indispensable man, the political force singularly responsible for the narrow lead that Troy Balderson, the Republican candidate, clings to in a heavily conservative Ohio House district and that Kris W. Kobach maintains in the Kansas governor’s primary. But the presidential braggadocio that […] Read more »
What the Ohio result tells us about a big argument among Democrats
A number of analyses of the Ohio special election results — including the one offered by your humble blogger earlier today — focused on the outsize energy in the suburbs of Columbus, where Democrat Danny O’Connor ran up large vote totals, something that bodes well for Democratic chances this fall. […] Read more »
Rating Changes in Five GOP-Held Seats
Republican Troy Balderson’s razor-thin apparent victory over Democrat Danny O’Connor in yesterday’s special election in Ohio’s 12th CD comes as a big relief to Republicans, including neighboring NRCC Chair Steve Stivers and the Congressional Leadership Fund, which spent $3.1 million to defend the seat. But the outcome doesn’t alter Democrats’ […] Read more »
The Ohio Results Point to Democratic Strength in 2018—and a Showdown in 2020
The results in Ohio’s special House election Tuesday night reinforced the electoral trends that have driven American politics since Donald Trump’s election—and underscored the precarious political trade the president is imposing on his party. Republican Troy Balderson’s slim advantage over Democrat Danny O’Connor in a district Republicans have held without […] Read more »
Washington state’s primary results paint a grim picture for GOP
Results from the Washington state primary on Tuesday are another bad sign for Republicans. We already know that Democrats lead in the House polls, and Republicans have a lot more seats at risk. Republicans therefore are hoping that the polling and the race ratings are overstating their vulnerability. They may […] Read more »