In 1982, as a young opposition researcher at the National Republican Congressional Committee, one of “my candidates” was an equally young John Kasich running in Ohio’s 12th District. He was the only GOP challenger to win in that first off-year election of the Reagan presidency, and Republicans have held the […] Read more »
Poll Hub: An Interview with Senator Charles Schumer
Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) joins this week’s episode of Poll Hub. In this critical midterm election cycle for Democrats Senator Schumer assesses his party’s chances of reclaiming Congress, shares why he thinks the battle for the House and the Senate is close, and discusses what the Democrats are doing […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information
Abstract: We forecast party control of the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm election. First, we model the expected national vote relying on available generic Congressional polls and the party of the president. Second, we model the district vote based primarily on results from 2016 and the national swing. […] Read more »
The Democratic Party Has Two Futures
Stacey Abrams, the first black woman nominated for governor by a major party, is banking on her ability to mobilize progressive constituencies, convinced she can register and turn out tens of thousands of minority voters on Election Day. … Abrams is an outspoken proponent of the liberal agenda, from LGBT […] Read more »
The House: Ratings Changes in the Aftermath of Another Nail-Biter Special Election
Is there such a thing as a moral victory in politics? Democrats hope so in OH-12. While the race remains uncalled, it appears as though state Sen. Troy Balderson (R) will squeak by Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor (D) in a closely-watched special election in this traditionally Republican district that […] Read more »
‘Nothing bodes well’: Lackluster election results spark debate over Trump’s midterm role
A new round of lackluster showings by Republican candidates reignited a debate Wednesday within the GOP over whether President Trump will be a drag on the party’s chances in November and should stay out of some of the country’s most hotly contested races. … “Nothing bodes well,” said longtime Republican […] Read more »