We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor Day weekend and the start of the sprint to Election Day, we thought we’d do something different. Instead of key points from this article, here are some key points about […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election Using National Polls and District Information
The Bafumi-Erikson-Wlezien team first applied our model in 2006 and were among the first to predict the return of the Democratic majority. That forecast was off by only two seats. Like most others, our model predicted a Republican takeover in 2010, underestimating the GOP swing by about 10 seats. In […] Read more »
Democratic Embrace of Diverse Candidates Collides With Barbed Politics of Trump Era
Democratic nominees for governor include three African-Americans, two of them in the old Confederacy, a prospect that not long ago would have been unthinkable. Record numbers of women are competing in congressional races. Elsewhere, Muslims, gays, lesbians and transgender people will be on the ballot for high-profile offices. That diverse […] Read more »
Impeachment? It’s the elephant in the room this election season
The elephant in the room for the Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll released Wednesday is the question of impeachment. Democrats want it, but they don’t want to talk about it in districts held by Republicans; it could rile up the GOP base and backfire on the effort to take over the […] Read more »
What Andrew Gillum vs Ron DeSantis in Florida will tell us about 2020
The governor’s race in Florida not only says a lot about where the Democratic and Republican parties are today but could also tell us where they are headed in the future. Republican Ron DeSantis is the Donald Trump of the 2018 Florida gubernatorial campaign. He was backed by Trump in […] Read more »
Millennials disillusioned about midterm elections
Millennials are disillusioned about political institutions and the 2018 midterms, according to results from a new NBC News/GenForward survey. … Despite Democrats maintaining higher favorable ratings than Republicans and being the favored party candidates for the 2018 midterms across time, Democrats still face a challenge when it comes to inspiring […] Read more »