The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos today launched the UVA Center for Politics-Ipsos Political Atlas. The new site combines Sabato’s Crystal Ball race ratings for every House, Senate, and gubernatorial race; Ipsos’ poll-based modeling; and Ipsos’ tracking of social media trends. CONT. U. of Virginia Center for […] Read more »
Arizona and Florida show how tough the Senate map is for Democrats
If Democrats are going to have a realistic shot of winning the Senate, they will have to win the races in two of the states with primaries on Tuesday: Arizona and Florida. If they lose either one, their chance to win the Senate goes down precipitously. Democrats have an uphill […] Read more »
‘It Is the Era of Trump’: How the President Is Remaking the Republican Party
… After more than two decades of tension within the GOP between a restive base and its traditional establishment, Trumpism, the archetypal grass-roots movement, is winning. With the 2018 primaries about to end, all but two of the 37 Republicans Mr. Trump has endorsed for House, Senate and governor during […] Read more »
In most of the country, McCain is being lauded as a hero. On Arizona’s GOP campaign trail, he’s a pariah.
It’s possible to imagine a world in which Sen. John McCain’s illness and death in office would send all three Republican candidates for Arizona’s other U.S. Senate seat racing to praise him and stake some claim to his immense legacy. … The reality is not even close. … The Arizona […] Read more »
NBC/WSJ poll: Trump approval ‘remarkably stable’ after a stormy week of bad news
After a week that saw President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman convicted on eight counts of fraud and his former lawyer plead guilty to felony campaign finance charges, the president’s job approval rating remains virtually unchanged, new polling from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal shows. But the stability […] Read more »
Win or lose, Beto O’Rourke will help Texas Democrats
… A new Marist College poll shows Republican Sen. Ted Cruz with a 49% to 45% advantage over Democrat Rep. Beto O’Rourke (TX-16) in the Texas Senate race. This is the latest poll that gives Cruz a small, but clear advantage in the contest. … Why does the closeness of […] Read more »