This election is taking on many of the aspects of a three-ring circus. Not only are wild and unexpected things happening, but if you focus too much on what is going on in any one ring, you miss what is going on in another. For the first time, the Supreme […] Read more »
Internal GOP Poll: Pelosi Beats Trump in a Head-to-Head Matchup
President Trump likes to mock Nancy Pelosi, but a private survey conducted for the Republican National Committee finds that she’s actually more popular—and beats the president when the midterm election is framed as a contest between the two. CONT. Joshua Green, Bloomberg Businessweek Read more »
There Are Two Gender Gaps—And the Gap Between Them Is Growing
The gender gap, produced by the relative pro-Democratic lean of women and pro-Republican lean of men in party affiliation and voting habits, has been a fact of American electoral life since the 1980s. … But gender differences in the composition of the parties become greater as we move up the […] Read more »
Can A Democrat Really Win A Senate Race In Tennessee? Or Mississippi?!?!
Republicans don’t have a lot of exposure in the Senate this year — but they’re doing what they can to help Democrats make the most of it. The GOP entered this election cycle with only eight of their own seats up for grabs. Republican incumbents retired in three of those […] Read more »
How the Republicans Fell for Trump’s Overconfidence Game
The topic never pops up in statistical analyses or pundit roundtables on cable TV, but one of the most underappreciated factors shaping politics is overconfidence. … All this brings us to the most laughable manifestation of overconfidence in the 2018 campaign. It comes courtesy of an internal Republican National Committee […] Read more »
Keep on Keepin’ On: 2018 Incumbent Renomination Rates
As a whole, incumbents won renomination in U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial nomination contests at a typical rate in 2018. In all, 100% of senators, 99% of representatives, and 95% of governors who sought renomination in Democratic or Republican primaries/conventions won renomination this cycle. CONT. Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal […] Read more »